Dave's New Northern Ireland Parliament Predictions

East Antrim - I still stand by what I said months ago. For some odd reason, I thought that Jr. ran last time for this seat. But he didn't. Makes me feel like an idiot. But still, it even makes the point stronger that Roy Beggs Sr., who has held this seat for decades, will lose it to Sammy.
Prediction: Wilson of the DUP by 3-4%
Actual - Wilson by 22.99%

East Belfast - Peter Robinson has held this seat since 1979 and it isn't changing.
Prediction - Robinson by 25 points
Actual - Robinson by 19.06%

East Londonderry - This can be the closest race in the entire UK. There are three parties that can really make an impact. Gregory Campbell is the current MP, but after the last Assembely elections, Francis Brolly really has a chance. The final result will be determined by this factor - who will take away more votes? Will the DUP take more votes away from the UUP than Sinn Fein will take away from the SLDP? But the DUP has strengthened in this seat.
Prediction - Campbell by 4%
Actual - Campbell by 21.76%

Fermanagh & South Tyrone - This will be one of the closest watched races in the UK. First term MP Gildernew will face stiff competition from UUP turn DUP MLA Arlene Foster. It was a high profile news report when Foster switch. But since then, Foster hasn't been in the news much, while Gildernew has.
Prediction - Gildernew by 8 points
Actual - Gildernew by 9.39%

Foyle - Earlier I said that I feel that Mitchell McLaughlin would be able to pull off the upset in this seat. Since then, I have had some reservations. The backlash against Sinn Fein could actually hurt McLaughlin, one of the party's top leaders. But don't let Hume's large margin last time fool you. This race is A LOT closer than it seems. In fact, BBC is saying this is a seat that Sinn Fein can take away. But, I am still thinking that Mark Durkan will squeek by in this seat. But if anyone wants to pick an upset in the Parliament races, this would be the race to look at.
Prediction: Durkan by 1%
Actual - Durkan by 13.06%

Lagan Valley - This district votes for the "person" and not the "party". While this seat has always been held by the UUP, it has been held by hardliner UUP members, like Jim Molyneaux. My pick still stands.
Prediction - Donaldson by at least 30%
Actual - Donaldson by 33.17%

Mid-Ulster - Since the Mid Ulster seat has been redrawn, it has served Sinn Fein well, and will continue to do so. Ian McCrea brings a fresh DUP face to this seat.
Prediction - McGuinness by 25 points
Actual - McGuinness by 24.16%

Newry & Armagh - Seamus Mallon will not seek re-election to this seat. Sinn Fein really railroaded the SDLP in the Assembly race here in 2003. This will be a seat Sinn Fein should gain.
Prediction - Conor Murphy by 8%
Actual - Murphy by 16.16%

North Antrim - Duh!
Prediction - Paisley Sr. by 35 points
Actual - Paisley by 39.12%

North Belfast - Nigel Dodds took over this seat with force from former MP Cecil Walker. This DUP party leader isn't expected to lose his seat. I don't think he will either, but watch and see what Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly will do. If the Ardoyne turns out, it will be closer than many expect.
Prediction - Dodds by only 10%
Actual - Dodds by 16.99%

North Down - This was a seat that I thought might be confusing to predict. But with the candidates announced, it seems that it will be easier to figure it out. It looks as if Robert McCartney will not seek the seat which he held until 2001. But the difference was that most DUP support went behind McCartney in 2001, as they didn't have a candidate of their own. This one will be extremely close. DUP might be an upset here.
Prediction - Lady Hermon by 1-2%
Actual - Hermon by 15.13%

South Antrim - David Burnside is the current MP. William McCrea, who was drawn out of his Mid Ulster seat in 1997, has been a strong candidate. But since Burnside has been a strong opponent to David Trimble in the UUP (supporting Trimble's resignation), UUP voters that will more than likey switch to the DUP in other races might stay home in this one. But it will still be close.
Prediction - Burnside by 3 points
Actual - McCrea by 9.08%

South Belfast - Is the 7th time a charm? Well, It might be for Alasdair McDonnell. This largely mixed Catholic/Protestant area usually gives way to moderate candidate, like those in the SDLP and UUP. Martin Smyth will not run for reelection. While the area is mixed, it usually trends to the Unionist cause. But recently, Catholics have really made strides. The Alliance Party did well here in their hayday, and I don't understand why they still don't.
Prediction - Michael McGimpsey by 8 points
Actual - McDonnell by 3.86%

South Down - Another border county area with a mix off all people, unionists, nationalists, loyalists and republicans. Makes for interesting elections. I didn't make a prediction on this race earlier because I didn't know who the SDLP candidate would be. But McGrady has decided to run again. This is a smart move by the SDLP as this might be the only seat that they retain.
Prediction - McGrady by 15 points
Actual - McGrady by 18.97

Strangford - Peter Robinson's wife, Iris, has made a name for herself in Strangford. The home of former Ulster Unionists, like Brian Faulkner, is now trending to become a strong DUP area. It isn't yet, but soon will be.
Prediction - Robinson by at least 10 points
Actual - Robinson by 35.24

Upper Bann - Well, I am sure they didn't want it to happen, but I feel that it will. David Trimble, with his rich UUP heritage and Nobel Peace prize and all, has really pissed off a lot of people in his own party. He has led the party in the wrong direction and the UUP isn't happy. The fact that he won the election to be retained as party leader is now seen as a strong arm move by Trimble and his bullies. The people of Upper Bann almost voted Trimble out last time, but this time it will happen. David Simpson has been a key player in the DUP and is a stonger candidate than he has ever been.
Prediction - David Simpson beats David Trimble by 6 points
Actual - Simpson by 11.92%

West Belfast - Watch Nigel Dobbs wife, Diane, in this race. If they can consolidate votes in The Shankill, they can start being a force in the area. Yeah right! Adams easily. But watch Dodds, it will be interesting.
Prediction - Adams by 45%
Actual - Adams by 55.91%

West Tyrone - This new district has been really beneficial to Republicans. Pat Doherty has done a great job being the MP. Nobody can really challenge him. It seems that Dr. Kieran Deeny will be a candidate for the seat afterall. But, it will not matter as this is not a transfer vote type election like the Assembly races are.
Prediction - Pat Doherty by 16 points
Actual - Doherty by 11.51%